How Big Could the Retatrutide Market Be? We Estimate $73 Billion ARR by 2031

Sales: $73 billion in 2031, $100 billion run rate by 2033

These are net sales after rebates and discounts, across every use retatrutide is likely to be approved for, benchmarked to Lilly's Q3 2026 tirzepatide prices and prescription volumes. Each $50 change in net revenue per fill moves the 2031 worldwide figure by $7.8 billion.

The model reduces to one multiplier on tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound, which booked $16.1 billion in Q3 2026, a $64.3 billion annual run rate (Lilly Q3 2026 results, SEC Form 8-K). Research buyers already take 1.44 patient-months of retatrutide for every one of tirzepatide. Prescriptions follow the gray market with a lag, so we apply a 25% real-world lag for 2031 (1.44 × 0.75 × 1.05 for new labels = 1.14 times tirzepatide) and remove it as the real world catches up by the end of 2033 (1.44 × 1.05 = 1.52 times, $97.8 billion, about $100 billion).

The gray market called tirzepatide first

Our thesis is that the research-use gray market is a leading indicator of real-world GLP-1 share. Its buyers are mostly performance-focused people, such as bodybuilders and serious lifters, who train most days and accept gray-market risk. Lilly's patients are older, more often female, focused on weight loss, and come through doctors, insurers, LillyDirect and telehealth. Because these two audiences barely overlap, we conclude that gray-market demand and prescription demand are almost entirely independent. The gray market also moves faster, with no regulators in the way, and it settles on the more effective compound first. The real world follows.

Tirzepatide is the test case. Our gray-market measure is public lab certificates: certificates of analysis (COAs) from independent testing labs, which anyone can look up. Each test costs money and is run on a vial that someone bought or is selling, so test counts track what is actually being bought. By mid-2025 these certificates had picked tirzepatide over semaglutide:

Source: PeptidePrices tally of public certificates from Freedom Diagnostics, Kovera Labs, Finnrick, Janoshik and ILS by report date, including vendor codenames for the same compounds. Months with at least 200 certificates; September 2026 is incomplete and left out.

Prescriptions have moved the same way, more slowly:

Tirzepatide against semaglutide, mid-2025

Gray market3.7×

Prescriptions1.3×

Tirzepatide against semaglutide, 2026

Gray market10.1×

Prescriptions1.5×

Retatrutide against tirzepatide, 2026

Gray market1.44×

PrescriptionsNot approved yetNone

Each bar is a multiple. In the gray market it is tirzepatide certificates divided by semaglutide certificates: 207 against 56 from May to August 2025 (3.7 times) and 2,464 against 244 from June to August 2026 (10.1 times). In prescriptions it is tirzepatide's share of US GLP-1 prescriptions divided by semaglutide's, which Citi puts at about 37% in both years: 49.5% ÷ 37% (1.3 times) and 56.9% ÷ 37% (1.5 times). For retatrutide it is gray-market patient-months against tirzepatide's, 1.44 times; there are no prescriptions until approval.

The gray-market dollar share uses our census in the Peptide Market Intelligence Index 2026: $726.6 million a year for tirzepatide against $59.0 million for semaglutide. The patient-month share divides those sales by the median in-stock list price per 10 mg in our tracked catalog: $43.33 for tirzepatide across 212 vendors on October 26, 2026, and $59.99 for semaglutide across 162 vendors on November 6, 2026, at 30 mg of tirzepatide and 7 to 10 mg of semaglutide a month. Real-world tirzepatide share rose 7.4 points of US GLP-1 prescriptions in a year, toward where gray buyers already were. Semaglutide shows the other side: it fell from 6.1% of all certificates in May 2025 to under 1% by mid-2026, while Novo still sold DKK 60.4 billion, about $9 billion, of it in Q3 2026 (Novo Nordisk Q3 2026). Gray buyers had already moved on.

What it implies for retatrutide. Retatrutide's share of retatrutide plus tirzepatide certificates held between 64% and 67% every month from January to August 2026, while total monthly certificates grew about tenfold between August 2025 and August 2026. On our census it is 59% of the pair's patient-months and 63% of its dollars. A share that holds steady while volume grows tenfold is a settled preference, and it is the share we expect prescriptions to move toward: 1.44 retatrutide patient-months for each tirzepatide one, or 59% of the pair. The switch will take longer than tirzepatide's climb past semaglutide, because it starts from tirzepatide's 87.8 million fills a year. That is the 25% real-world lag in our 2031 figure.

These comparisons mix sources. The real-world shares are Citi's, and prescription data under-count the cash and telehealth prescriptions where much self-pay tirzepatide sits. Our certificate data starts in May 2025, so it shows that the gray market led, but it cannot time the lag in months.

Step 1: What Lilly charges and nets on tirzepatide

List, cash and government prices

Mounjaro's list price is about $1,112 for four pens. LillyDirect added the Zepbound KwikPen to self-pay on February 23, 2026. In Morgan Stanley's July 2026 breakdown of LillyDirect cash fills, 20.8% were at $299, 24.2% at $399 and 48.6% at $449, so more than 93% of cash fills cost $449 or less and they average about $400.

What Lilly actually books per fill

Lilly reported a 7% fall in US realized price for Q3 2026 against a year earlier, about 10% excluding a rebate adjustment (Form 8-K above). Dividing Q3 US revenue by 13 weeks of IQVIA prescription fills gives Lilly's net revenue per fill:

The fill counts are the IQVIA weekly rate for the week ending September 25, 2026, times 13. Lilly nets about $470 a fill, about 43% of the list price.

Why retatrutide should net the same

Retatrutide and tirzepatide are both 39-residue lipidated peptides made by solid-phase synthesis, so a month's supply should cost Lilly about the same to make. Lilly prices tirzepatide flat across doses and moves price through channels: self-pay tiers, the $245 government price and TrumpRx.

Our assumption is a list price of about $1,200 per 28 days, about 10% above Zepbound's $1,086, with the same $470 of net revenue per US fill. Retatrutide is the stronger drug and already costs 42% more per mg in the research market, so a modestly higher list price fits. Lilly sets what it actually books through rebates and channel prices, and those held tirzepatide at $470 a fill; we expect the higher list price to fund deeper rebates and leave net revenue at parity, 39% of the $1,200 list. Holding $470 to 2031 also means retatrutide's efficacy offsets the erosion tirzepatide's own net price will see (Lilly's CFO, Lucas Montarce, said on the Q3 call that net price remains a headwind in 2027).

Step 2: The tirzepatide benchmark

Mounjaro was approved for type 2 diabetes in May 2022, and Zepbound for weight management on November 8, 2023, almost exactly three years ago. Tirzepatide revenue, Mounjaro and Zepbound combined, in millions of dollars:

Sources: Lilly Form 8-K filings for Q1 2026, Q2 2026 and Q3 2026.

• Run rate. Q3 2026 times four is $64.3 billion. The trailing four quarters total $55.4 billion. The first nine months of 2026 total $43.8 billion, which puts the full year near $60 billion at the Q3 pace.
• Ramp. Tirzepatide revenue grew 2.6 times in the 18 months from Q1 2025 to Q3 2026.
• US share. About 64% of tirzepatide revenue is American: about $10.3 billion in the US and $5.8 billion elsewhere in Q3 2026.
• Prescriptions. IQVIA counts, as reported by Bernstein's GLP-1 tracker (via the xxquant aggregator), show 1.684 million weekly tirzepatide prescriptions, Mounjaro and Zepbound combined, for the week ending September 25, 2026. That is about 7.32 million fills a month, or 87.8 million fills a year. These are fills, not patients. IQVIA captures less than every fill, but because our $470 divides Lilly's revenue by the same IQVIA count, the capture rate cancels out of the dollar figures.
• The class. All GLP-1 drugs together ran at 2.88 million weekly prescriptions, up 38.6% from a year earlier, and Lilly held 63% of the branded total.
• Users. A Gallup survey fielded May 28 to June 5, 2026 (5,065 adults) found 11% of US adults currently take a GLP-1 drug for weight loss and 15% have ever taken one (Gallup). Applied to 269.8 million adults (Census Bureau, Vintage 2025), that is about 29.7 million current users. Of them, 66% use a brand-name drug and 18% a compounded one. KFF found 12% of adults on a GLP-1 drug for any reason in a poll fielded October 27 to November 2, 2025 (KFF).
• Persistence. Persistence is the share of patients still filling prescriptions a year after they start. It is about 20% in the cash channel, about 61% for recent commercially insured starters (Journal of Managed Care and Specialty Pharmacy, 2026) and 40% for tirzepatide in an Optum claims study, about 45% to 50% blended. A fill is a paid month, so persistence is already inside the 87.8 million fills.
• Dose. Each fill is four weekly doses at one flat price. A 5 mg weekly dose is 20 mg per fill. The LillyDirect tier mix implies a real-world average of 7 to 8 mg a week, or 30 to 35 mg per fill.

Step 3: The gray market, from our own data

The figures in this step are PeptidePrices' own measurements.

Sales

Our 995-storefront census models research-use-only (RUO) gross sales from third-party traffic estimates (47,750,538 visits, May to July 2026), an accepted-order rate of 0.119778782 per visit calibrated from six storefronts, and a $188.52 average order value (AOV) checked across fourteen storefronts. That is $22.58 a visit and a $4.31 billion annualized baseline. This method is the same one we used in the Peptide Market Intelligence Index 2026 and the growth-hormone peptide census.

Traffic and orders show how much the channel sells in total, not which compounds. For that we use COAs: each test is paid for and run on a real vial, so a compound's share of tests stands in for its share of sales. We count COAs from February 1 to July 31, 2026 and weight three labs. Finnrick Public gets 50%, because Finnrick's public records are consumers sending in their own vials, a direct read of demand by compound. Freedom Diagnostics and Kovera Labs get 25% each. Their certificates are mostly submitted by vendors, who test everything they stock, but vendors still test popular compounds such as retatrutide and tirzepatide more often than niche ones.

Retatrutide ranks first of the 95 compounds in the census, without a single approval or legal sale anywhere.

Prices

Median in-stock list price per 10 mg in our tracked catalog of October 26, 2026:

These are list prices before coupons and bulk pricing. Prices at the same vendors fell only about 2% from July to October.

Patient-months

A patient-month is one month of a drug for one person, about the same as one 28-day prescription fill. We count gray-market patient-months by dividing monthly sales by the price of one month at a given dose (median per 10 mg times the mg in a month, divided by 10):

At our dose basis, about 670,000 people a month use gray-market retatrutide (8.07 million patient-months a year) and about 470,000 use gray-market tirzepatide (5.59 million patient-months a year). Lilly fills 87.8 million tirzepatide prescriptions a year, about 7.3 million fills a month. The gray market is small next to prescriptions; what the forecast uses is how the two compounds compare inside it.

The $154.33 for a 25 mg month of retatrutide and the $129.99 for a 30 mg month of tirzepatide are median list prices before coupons and bulk pricing. Real buyers likely pay less, so the true number of gray-market patient-months is higher than these counts. The sales estimate does not move with it: a discount that applies to both drugs equally cancels out of the 1.44 ratio, and the estimate would rise only if retatrutide buyers get deeper discounts than tirzepatide buyers.

The ratio, and our dose basis

If both compounds are measured at the same mg per month, the dose cancels out of the comparison: gray retatrutide patient-months divided by gray tirzepatide patient-months is (1,245.56 ÷ 61.73) ÷ (726.61 ÷ 43.33) = 1.20 at any shared dose.

The two drugs do not use the same amount, though. Retatrutide's maintenance doses in its main obesity trial are 4, 9 and 12 mg a week (Lilly via BioSpace), against 5, 10 and 15 mg for tirzepatide in its own (NEJM). The ladders sum to 25 mg and 30 mg, so a retatrutide user at the same rung takes five sixths of the mg. Gray buyers have a second reason to economize, because retatrutide costs 42% more per mg. We therefore value tirzepatide at its real-world 30 mg per 28 days (7.5 mg a week) and retatrutide at 25 mg (6.25 mg a week). That lifts the ratio to 1.44 patient-months of retatrutide for every one of tirzepatide.

Step 4: From gray-market demand to prescriptions

The method: tirzepatide has both channels, so it shows how many prescription fills stand behind each gray-market patient-month. Every year tirzepatide has 87.8 million prescription fills (about 7.3 million fills a month) and 5.59 million gray-market patient-months (about 470,000 a month). That is 15.7 fills for each gray-market patient-month. Applying the same multiple to retatrutide's gray demand is equivalent to multiplying tirzepatide's fills by the 1.44 ratio.

Steps 9 to 11 multiply tirzepatide's fills by 1.44, 0.75 and 1.05, a combined 1.137. Applied to tirzepatide's $64.3 billion worldwide run rate, that gives $73.1 billion, the same answer within rounding.

From 2031 to a $100 billion run rate

With the lag gone, the multiplier is 1.44 × 1.05 = 1.52 times tirzepatide's $64.3 billion run rate, or $97.5 billion, the same within rounding. We estimate a run rate of about $100 billion by the end of 2033. At that point retatrutide holds 60% of the pair's prescriptions, in line with the 59% it already holds of gray-market patient-months.

The adjustments

1. Real-world lag: minus 25% in 2031. The 1.44 ratio is where we expect prescriptions to end up, not where they will be three and a half years after launch. Tirzepatide's real-world share has climbed about 7 points a year toward the gray-market level, and moving prescriptions from tirzepatide's 87.8 million fills a year is a bigger switch than tirzepatide's own climb past semaglutide. We therefore hold retatrutide at 75% of the gray-market ratio in 2031, which leaves it at 53% of retatrutide plus tirzepatide prescriptions against 59% of gray-market patient-months, and remove the lag by the end of 2033. Each 10 points on this lag moves the 2031 worldwide figure by $9.8 billion.

2. Efficacy: no adjustment. Retatrutide's 12 mg dose produced 28.3% weight loss at 80 weeks in its main Phase 3 obesity trial, TRIUMPH-1 (efficacy estimand, Lilly topline, not yet peer reviewed), against 22.5% for tirzepatide 15 mg at 72 weeks in its equivalent trial, SURMOUNT-1, on the same estimand (20.9% on the treatment-regimen estimand). That is a 1.26 times edge; a head-to-head trial is under way. Gray buyers made their choices after the Phase 2 data and, for most of the census window, after the Phase 3 obesity results of May 21, 2026, so the 1.44 ratio already prices the edge in. Adding it again would count it twice.

3. Cannibalization: no change to retatrutide, but an explicit pool assumption. The method holds tirzepatide at its current 87.8 million fills and adds 99.8 million fills for retatrutide, so Lilly's combined volume reaches 187.6 million fills, 2.14 times today, with retatrutide at 53% of it. That requires 16.4% annual growth from 2026 to 2031, against 38.6% for the GLP-1 class today. Switching patients still count as retatrutide sales; they are not new money for Lilly, which keeps the 47% tirzepatide share of the pool. Each 0.1 taken off the 2.14 pool multiple removes $3.4 billion from the 2031 worldwide figure. At the end-2033 run rate the pool is 2.52 times today, 14.1% a year from 2026.

4. Timing: 2031, then a rising run rate. 2031 is not a peak. FDA action in early 2028 puts it about three and a half years after launch. That is comparable to Zepbound: approved November 8, 2023, it carried tirzepatide to today's $64.3 billion run rate by Q3 2026, about three years later. Retatrutide also launches into payers, a cash channel and manufacturing that already exist, so there is no reason its ramp should take longer. Sales keep rising after 2031 as the real-world lag closes, to about $100 billion a year by the end of 2033. We hold volume and price at Q3 2026 levels. Lilly's US volume grew 41% in Q3 against a 7% price decline, so holding both flat is the conservative direction.

5. Label expansion: plus 5%. The tirzepatide base already includes diabetes (Mounjaro) and sleep apnea (Zepbound), so we add only a small increase for the labels covered in the next section. Their main effect is wider payer coverage. Each 5 points moves the worldwide figure by $3.5 billion.

6. Persistence, how long patients stay on a drug: no adjustment. Fills are paid months, and a gray-market patient-month is a repeat purchase, so both sides of the ratio already count only people who stay on a drug. Retatrutide's higher discontinuation for adverse events (11.3% at 12 mg against 4.9% on placebo in the main obesity trial) is what gray buyers experience too.

Dose basis. Measuring both drugs at the same mg per month instead of our 25 and 30 mg basis lowers the result to 83.2 million fills, $39.1 billion in the US and $61.1 billion worldwide.

Cross-checks from the top down

• Patients. 99.8 million fills is about 8.3 million patient-years. That is 28% of the 29.7 million US adults Gallup counts on a GLP-1 drug for weight loss today, and 7.7% of the 108.7 million US adults with obesity (40.3% in CDC NHANES times 269.8 million adults).
• Early share. Morgan Stanley's physician survey expects retatrutide to take 11% of obesity patients within 18 months of launch. Applied to Gallup's 29.7 million current US users, that is 3.3 million patients, or $18.4 billion of US sales a year at $470 a fill. Our 2031 US figure of $46.9 billion is about 2.5 times that 18-month mark, and tirzepatide grew 2.6 times in its latest 18 months alone.
• Market size. Retatrutide's 99.8 million fills would be 66% of today's 150.2 million GLP-1 fills a year (2.88 million prescriptions a week), or 33% of a class twice today's size. Doubling by 2031 takes about 15% a year, less than half of the class's current 38.6% growth rate.

What analysts publish

These are other estimates, shown for context. Most do not disclose their assumptions, and they cover different years.

Published forecasts build up from obesity prevalence with modest share assumptions. Ours starts from what tirzepatide already sells, $64.3 billion a year at the Q3 2026 pace, and from the gray market, which picked tirzepatide over semaglutide before prescriptions did. Gray buyers now purchase 1.2 times as much retatrutide as tirzepatide by weight, and nothing in the consensus range reflects a drug in that position.

Why Lilly is suing over retatrutide

Our estimate is far above the published consensus. Lilly's own legal campaign is the strongest sign that it takes the gray market as seriously as we do.

Lilly filed 11 federal lawsuits against retatrutide sellers in 2026: six on August 12 and five on October 8 (Endpoints, Lilly, CNBC, BioPharma Dive). It has also made more than 200 referrals to the FDA, the Department of Justice, state attorneys general and other authorities, and filed more than 14,000 takedown reports in more than 100 countries. Lilly's stated reason is safety. Its chief medical officer, David Hyman, put it this way: "What is being sold on the black market is not a medicine."

The state-law counts are unfair competition and consumer protection claims premised on selling an unapproved new drug. None is a trademark claim, and no complaint names a damages figure. At least four of the defendants also sold or promoted tirzepatide, and two of them semaglutide as well. The claims target retatrutide only.

Gray-market revenue does not explain the effort. Even on our census, which is generous, research-use retatrutide sells about $1.25 billion a year and tirzepatide about $0.73 billion, against tirzepatide's $64.3 billion run rate. Lilly has not published what it spends on these cases.

Our read: Lilly is protecting future customers, not current gray revenue. Its complaints say part of this themselves. They plead that gray-market sales divert consumers from Mounjaro and Zepbound and condition the public to associate retatrutide with danger before Lilly's own launch (S.D. Tex. complaint 4:26-cv-06562, paragraph 69), and they quote buyers saying 10 vials of retatrutide cost about half of one Mounjaro pen. Gray-market interest has grown with each readout. Search interest took off in early 2025 (Public Citizen), and Lilly has since reported its knee osteoarthritis trial (December 2025), its first type 2 diabetes trial (March 2026), its main obesity trial (May 2026) and two more obesity trials (July 2026). The evidence now reaches past weight loss: liver fat fell 82.4% on 12 mg in a Phase 2 substudy, A1C fell 1.7 to 2.0 points against 0.8 on placebo in the March 2026 diabetes trial (HCPLive), and hsCRP, a marker of inflammation, fell 51.2% in the two July 2026 obesity trials (DDW), alongside knee pain and sleep apnea results, with cardiovascular, kidney and back-pain trials under way. The attention now reaches casual audiences through social media influencers (Public Citizen). Research buyers have had retatrutide since at least early 2025, and Lilly cannot sell it until about 2028. The risk for Lilly is mainstream patients who buy gray out of impatience and stay there, and each US patient who stays with Lilly instead is worth about $5,600 a year in net revenue ($470 × 12 = $5,640). That fear fits our thesis: if gray buyers pick the drug first and prescriptions follow, the gray market is where Lilly's future patients are forming habits now. A company that expected retatrutide to sell like the consensus forecasts would have little reason to fight over it this hard before launch.

The safety concern is also real. FDA adverse-event reports include at least 14 hospitalizations as of June 2026 (Public Citizen) and two deaths in which reporters alleged that unauthorized retatrutide played a role (CBS News, October 14, 2026); causality has not been established. Poison centers recorded 862 retatrutide exposures from July to September 2026, part of which may reflect new tracking (Medical Daily). Finnrick rated 71 of 179 tested retatrutide vendors, 39.7%, poor, bad or fraud, according to Public Citizen. US Customs and Border Protection recorded more than 1,400 seizures and nearly 90,000 vials of illicit GLP-1 drugs in July 2026 alone, according to Reuters as cited by PharmaVoice. Lilly's safety case is genuine, and the pattern of its lawsuits also fits a commercial motive.

What else retatrutide is being studied for

Each new indication adds market: patients who would not take a drug for weight alone, and wider payer coverage for those who would. Tirzepatide and semaglutide show how far that goes, because both have already added approvals beyond diabetes and weight loss. Retatrutide is in trials for the same conditions:

"None found" means we found no approval or registered trial as of November 6, 2026. Retatrutide also lowered hsCRP, a marker of inflammation, by 51.2% in two Phase 3 obesity trials (DDW); inflammation is not an indication on its own, but it runs through heart, kidney and liver disease.

Semaglutide has the widest label today: diabetes, weight, heart, kidney and liver. Tirzepatide added sleep apnea in 2024 and cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetes in 2026. Retatrutide's first filing covers obesity, sleep apnea and knee osteoarthritis, and it is in trials for the rest. Most of these benefits follow from weight loss, so most of their value is payer coverage rather than new patients. That is why adjustment 5 adds only 5%; every label retatrutide wins beyond its first filing is upside to our estimate.

What retatrutide will cost

Our estimate is a modestly higher list price with tirzepatide's net revenue:

• List price: about $1,200 per 28 days, about 10% above Zepbound's $1,086.
• Self-pay through LillyDirect: Zepbound's $299, $399 and $449 tiers, which put the top maintenance doses at $449.
• Net revenue per US fill: $470, tirzepatide's Q3 2026 figure.
• Medicare: The GLP-1 Bridge charges beneficiaries $50 a month from July 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, and covers Wegovy, the Zepbound KwikPen and Foundayo for weight loss (NPR). Retatrutide will not be approved before it ends, so its Medicare coverage depends on what follows. On the Q3 call, Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said he expects coverage to move into Part D (call transcript).

Lilly's cash prices have only moved down. Zepbound vials launched through LillyDirect in August 2024 at $399 for the lowest strength (PharmaExec), fell to $349 in 2025 (Fierce Pharma) and to $299 in December 2025 (Fierce Healthcare), a 25% drop in 16 months. Revenue has grown through volume instead.

From filing to launch: the timeline

What the review clock implies. The FDA's goal for an original BLA is action within 10 months of the 60-day filing date on standard review and 6 months on priority review (PDUFA VII commitment letter). For a submission between January and March 2027:

• Standard review: action between January and March 2028, and a launch in the first half of 2028. This is our base case.
• Priority review: action between September and November 2027.
• Voucher review: Foundayo was approved on April 1, 2026, 50 days after filing, under the Commissioner's National Priority Voucher pilot (FDA). We found no evidence that retatrutide holds a voucher.

What could move it. Manufacturing data, the reason Lilly gave for moving the filing out of 2026. The drug-or-biologic dispute: the FDA says retatrutide is not a protein, Lilly disagrees, and Lilly's appeal is pending at the Seventh Circuit (docket 26-1301); a BLA brings 12 years of exclusivity against 5 for an NDA. A major amendment can add three months to the goal date.

How we built the estimate

The estimate benchmarks retatrutide against tirzepatide. Lilly's revenue comes from its Form 8-K filings, prescription counts from IQVIA as reported by Bernstein through an aggregator, and gray-market sales and prices from PeptidePrices' own census and tracked catalog. The gray-market ratio stands in for where prescriptions converge after approval, on the evidence that gray buyers led real-world prescribing from semaglutide to tirzepatide. Its census sales are modeled from traffic, an order rate calibrated on six storefronts, one average order value for every compound and public lab-testing share as a proxy for sales share. The real-world lag, label expansion and net price are our assumptions, and each has a sensitivity above. The model applies no probability of approval. Outside the US it uses tirzepatide's 64% US revenue share.

Sources

• Lilly Form 8-K results: Q3 2026, October 29, 2026, Q2 2026, Q1 2026: Mounjaro and Zepbound revenue, US and outside-US split, realized price.
• Lilly Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (third-party transcript): net price outlook, Medicare comments, TRANSCEND-T2D-2.
• IQVIA prescription counts from Bernstein's GLP-1 tracker, week ending September 25, 2026, via the xxquant aggregator.
• Gallup, fielded May 28 to June 5, 2026; KFF poll, November 2025; Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates; CDC NCHS Data Brief 508.
• Prices: LillyDirect Zepbound, checked November 6, 2026; Ro; BioPharma Dive, November 6, 2025; White House TrumpRx fact sheet, February 2026; CMS Medicare GLP-1 Bridge; NPR on the Bridge. Morgan Stanley's July 2026 LillyDirect cash mix and physician survey, the Journal of Managed Care and Specialty Pharmacy 2026 persistence analysis and the Optum tirzepatide persistence study are cited as reported.
• Trials: TRIUMPH-1 release, May 21, 2026 and BioSpace repost; TRIUMPH-2 and TRIUMPH-3 release, July 23, 2026; TRIUMPH-4 via PharmaExec; SURMOUNT-1, NEJM; retatrutide liver fat substudy, Nature Medicine; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05882045, NCT06383390, NCT07035093.
• Analyst estimates: CNBC, Motley Fool, December 2025, BioSpace on Truist, Clinical Trials Arena on GlobalData, Motley Fool, September 2026, PharmaExec on Clarivate.
• Regulatory and enforcement: FDA PDUFA VII commitment letter, FDA Foundayo approval notice, Seventh Circuit docket 26-1301, BioSpace, August 5, 2026, PharmaVoice, October 12, 2026, Reuters via Fox, August 2026.
• Retatrutide lawsuits: Endpoints, Lilly via PR Newswire, August 12, 2026, CNBC, BioPharma Dive; complaints via CourtListener: E.D. Cal. 2:26-cv-02764, S.D. Tex. 4:26-cv-06562, W.D. La. 5:26-cv-04146, N.D. Tex. 3:26-cv-03514 and N.D. Tex. 4:26-cv-01294. Safety and attention: Public Citizen on hospitalizations, Public Citizen on search interest, CBS News, October 14, 2026, Medical Daily. Trial readouts: HCPLive on TRANSCEND-T2D-1, DDW on TRIUMPH-2 and TRIUMPH-3.
• Other indications: Pharmacy Times on Zepbound for sleep apnea, Pharmacy Times on Mounjaro cardiovascular risk, Pharmacy Times on Ozempic for kidney disease, Healio on Ozempic, BioSpace on Wegovy cardiovascular risk, American Pharmaceutical Review on Wegovy for MASH, STEP 9, NEJM, SYNERGY-NASH, NEJM via PubMed; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07281196, NCT06191848, NCT05536804, NCT07731256.
• Price history: PharmaExec, August 2024, Fierce Pharma, Fierce Healthcare, December 2025.
• PeptidePrices data: Peptide Market Intelligence Index 2026 and growth-hormone peptide census for the 995-storefront method; median in-stock list prices, vendor and listing counts from our tracked catalog of October 26, 2026 (semaglutide, November 6, 2026).